The price of raw milk increased due to the export of feed – Alexander Polyak
According to the expert, the increase in the cost of dairy products on the shelf was influenced by two factors. The first is last year's rise in the price of raw materials. Due to the fact that not all retail chains immediately accepted the price increase from the factories, many companies raised prices only since January.
The second factor is the continued rise in the price of raw materials due to the increase in feed prices. According to the expert, they, in turn, rose in price due to the large volume of grain and meal exports, while world prices for them increased.
‘It's a chain. It was the export that affected the cost of feed and, accordingly, the cost of raw materials. On the one hand, export is a plus for the country, and on the other hand, it leads to such negative results,’ Alexander Polyak believes.
He noted that compared to 2019, in 2020, the average increase in the price of raw materials was 1.5-2 rubles. For consumers, this change is expressed in 7-8%.
According to Alexander Polyak, the price increase on the shelf is now difficult to assess. The expert said that according to Dairy Trader services, due to constant promotions, the average price of milk in retail chains, compared to 2019, did not increase, but decreased. If in December 2019 the cost of milk on the shelf was 52.5 rubles, then in December 2020 its price was 51.2 rubles. According to the expert, in order to assess the level of changes in prices for milk correctly, it is necessary to monitor the price of the entire dairy product basket. For example, the cost of cheeses on the shelf increased by 5-7%.
Alexander Polyak noted that during the coronavirus period, the demand for dairy products remains stable. He added that at the moment there is no real sharp increase in prices, while this is only being talked about. The expert added that the economy in Russia, as well as around the world, is unstable. Thus, according to Sberbank statistics, in November 2020, the average level of salary payments to residents of our country decreased by 7% compared to the same level in 2019. In this regard, if there is a sharp jump in prices, the demand for dairy products will fall.
‘At the moment, the cost of milk powder is increasing. Prices for raw materials remain at the same level, and in some regions even fell. I do not think that they will grow, because if they increase by at least another 1 ruble, it will not be possible to produce cheeses at the price that is now. Therefore, I do not think that prices will rise by the summer,’ Alexander Polyak said.
He noted that at the moment there is a balance between the level of income of the population and the cost of dairy products on the shelf. The expert believes that if the state will provide additional financial assistance for the population, the market will see either stability or a slow increase in its volume. If there is no income compensation, the population will have nowhere to take money.
‘There is a certain balance: people do not go on vacation, the borders are generally closed - and this is quite a positive factor for the sale of products, but not for people. As soon as the borders are opened, the balance of consumption will immediately change, since people do not have much money,’ concluded Alexander Polyak.
It’s worth reminding that on March 9, 2021 the Dairy Index DIA amounted to 29.41 rubles/kg (excluding VAT, fat-3.6%, protein-3.0%), which is 0.72% higher than last week and 9.7% higher than in March 2020. The key factor in the growth of the indicator, according to the Index DIA application, was both an increase in the import price due to the increase in prices for exchange-traded dairy products, and an increase in the weighted average price of milk in the Russian Federation.