The increase in prices for dairy products may be 7-9%
‘The reasons for the increase in the cost of products are complex. They include an increase in prices for raw materials, packaging and transportation of products, as well as the introduction of labeling of dairy products,’ said the source to The Dairy News.
According to industry representatives, it is still difficult to predict how retail chains will react to the expected price increase. ‘Nevertheless, companies have different pricing policies depending on the format,’ they explain.
Analysts agree that the growth of selling prices for dairy products is not far off. ‘I think that the increase will be about 10% this autumn,’ estimates Director of DIA Mikhail Mishchenko.
In his opinion, the main factor of price changes will be an increase in the cost of raw materials. In addition, the continuing shortage of raw milk on the market will also play a role, the expert notes.
‘Unfortunately, the rise in the price of products will not be able to restrain the attempts of the state to limit the price increase. However, targeted subsidies to the population could help stimulate demand, including for dairy products, and improve the standard of living of Russians,’ Mikhail Mishchenko argues.
As an option, he says, the proposal of Soyuzmoloko to introduce targeted consumer support looks interesting, as, for example, it is done in the United States. There, some categories of citizens receive bankcards with a certain amount that can only be spent on food. Such a measure could increase the demand for food, Mikhail Mishchenko concludes.
Other analysts give similar forecasts. Thus, Alexander Polyak, a member of the council of the Dairy Union of Russia, believes that the price increase will be about 7-10%. According to him, this will happen more likely since October, after the elections are held. At the same time, prices on store shelves may increase more significantly, since margins in some chains can range fr om 50 to 100%. ‘If the price increase at the factories is, for example, 7-10%, then retail chains, at least, transfer this growth to the shelf,’ Alexander Polyak believes.
If it were not for 500 billion one-time payments to pensioners (10 thousand rubles per person), the military (15 thousand rubles per person), we could expect a drop in demand, he concludes.
At the same time, the autumn price increase is not the lim it. ‘It is quite possible that we can expect a second increase before the new year. It will be associated with a seasonal increase in demand for dairy products,’ Mikhail Mishchenko predicts.
