- These are measures aimed at controlling the temperature of employees at the entrance and the increased use of sanitizers, as well as the delivery of employees of enterprises on corporate transport to prevent the intersection with the sick in public transport. According to our estimates, this led to an increase in the cost price of dairy products by 5%, but so far producers have not been able to increase prices in proportion to the increase in cost price, - said the expert.
Marina Petrova also added that the revenue of companies that had HoReCa as one of their sales channels decreased slightly, but there was no redistribution of sales volume. However, dairy industry participants will feel the most serious consequences of coronavirus and self-isolation in the coming months.
In her opinion, the long-term consequences will be as follows:
1. Reduced purchasing power due to the closure of many businesses - companies from various industries, primarily related to small and medium-sized businesses.
2. Unemployment growth in Russia as a whole.
3. The decline in oil prices, which is highly likely to lead to the devaluation of the national currency by the end of 2020.
- In general, all this will lead to a decrease in gross national product of Russia and, as a result, a negative balance of the Federal budget. In this regard, the dairy industry will see a redistribution of consumer demand from expensive products to traditional basic ones in the summer of 2020. We should not forget that Russia did not get out of the crisis of 2014, which smoothly turned into the crisis of 2020, - said Marina Petrova. - And in the next 2.5 years, we expect a decrease in milk production in Russia, as well as a reduction in processing due to small and inefficient enterprises – processors with a processing volume of up to 100 tons at the reception will be affected the most.