The regulator said that the dynamics of inflation this year and in the first half of 2021 will largely be formed by the deep drop in domestic and external demand that occurred in the second quarter. The disinflationary impact of weak demand has increased, due to the current and deferred economic effects of restrictions.
Inflation expectations of the population and business declined after short-term growth in March—April.
The impact of the ruble weakening on prices in March and temporary increased demand for certain groups of goods has been exhausted. According to preliminary data on June 15, annual inflation was about 3.1%.
According to Vedomosti, the Central Bank has included in its forecast average annual inflation for 2020 at the level of 3.8–4.8%, and the Ministry of economic development – the target 4%. But according to the updated version of the forecast of the Ministry of economic development, inflation will be lower – 3.5%.