Tetra Pak and Lund University named 4 scenarios for the development of dairy industry in the future

Источник: The DairyNews
Tetra Pak together with the school of Economics and management of Lund University completed a study that presents four possible scenarios for the future of the dairy industry, writes The DairyNews. By 2030, according to analysts, depending on the scenario, in the dairy industry, cow milk will account for between 20% and 85% of all milk consumed in the world.

The study analyzed six global markets to examine critical social, environmental factors and technological leaps that could change the market landscape in the next 10 years.

Frederick Wellendorf, Vice President of liquid products department at Tetra Pak, notes: ‘The food and beverage sector will undergo huge changes over the next decade, and the dairy industry will feel this most acutely. Obviously, there are still many challenges ahead, but there are also plenty of opportunities. The key to success in the new market landscape will be to be flexible and actively respond to any disruptive changes.’

‘The global dairy industry is at the heart of a food transformation, and the contours of this transition are already beginning to take shape. We have worked out a number of key scenarios for the development of the dairy industry by 2030 and related sectors of the food industry and distribution. The scenarios are as different from each other as possible, within the limits of plausibility and credibility. All of them can be considered as the future probable results of the decade,’ says Dr. Christian Koch, head of the School of Economics and management at Lund University.

The authors of the study identify four likely scenarios – "Dairy evolution", "Green dairy products", "New synthesis" and "Brave new food" – each of which demonstrates a different interaction of socio-environmental factors and technologies with different results.

The first scenario, "Dairy evolution" is characterized by the absence of big surprises, when the dairy industry will continue to follow current trends with fewer problems.

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During the implementation of this scenario, there will be no major surprises, current trends continue with smooth, gradual changes.

• Gradual improvement of the environment.

• Low level of technological equipment growth.

• Continued consolidation in the direction of mega-farms.

• Continued, moderate growth in the production and consumption of plant-based products.

• Artificial protein and laboratory (synthetic milk) is still a niche offering.

• Increase in global milk supplies to meet demand in countries with product shortages.

The “Green dairy products” scenario is characterized by strong socio-environmental factors, such as changing consumer demand and political constraints, but not significant technological growth, which encourages the dairy industry to invest heavily in reducing its carbon footprint and it is the main driver for this scenario.

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• Only a few of the largest producers remain after a major change in the subsidy rules, new taxes on animal products and stricter social policies will be added.

• Higher costs lead to higher prices for cow milk, especially for butter and cheese.

• Strong growth in demand for plant-based alternatives.

• Milk protein based on laboratory synthesis remains a premium niche, but has certain problems due to GMOs.

The "New synthesis", which is dominated by innovative technologies and processes, but weak socio-environmental forces, will have a significant impact on the industry.

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During the development of this scenario innovative technology and processes are dominating. New combinations of proteins from different sources and new products.

• Only slight gradual improvements in environmental conditions.

• Producers of "laboratory" milk are achieving significant growth.

• Drinking milk is the "Last Bastion" for conventional dairy products.

• Craft/premium dairy products and cheese continue to thrive.

• Moderate growth of plant-based milk, despite advances in the formulation and nutritional profile of alternatives.

• Products combine the “three worlds” of animal, plant, and laboratory protein to create a thriving new segment of personalized nutrition

The last scenario, "Brave new food", is a scenario that combines strong social and environmental forces and highly innovative technologies that together will lead to a complete transformation of the industry.

• Due to technological and regulatory pressures, there are very few mega-farms and large factories left.

• Artisanal/premium dairy products and cheese continue to thrive.

• The production of cultured milk protein is cost-effective and is entering the mass market, scaling up.

• Highly functional cultured liquid milk is growing in sales due to cost advantages over taxable animal products

• Strong demand for products from plant-based alternatives.

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- Anticipating the extent of the industry transformation, Tetra Pak has already begun working with startups and academia to accelerate understanding of the effectiveness of different types of protein under different processing conditions. Thanks to this, the company will create solutions that will allow customers to quickly respond to any changes. 

Read more at © DairyNews.ru   https://www.dairynews.ru/news/tetra-pak-i-lundskiy-universitet-nazvali-4-stsenar.html

30.01.2024
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