Russia will have a milk surplus in 2022
By the way, in the previous version of the government's document on achieving national goals, prepared in August, there were more optimistic figures. By the end of 2020, decline in population was expected at the level of 158 thousand inhabitants, and in 2022, growth was predicted. Thus, according to the Cabinet of Ministers, the reduction in the number of citizens accelerated.
‘Let's say that milk production in the country will continue to grow, by about 5% (farm peasant holdings and agricultural enterprises) per year. The main variable is milk consumption, and there are three possible scenarios for the development of events: consumption remains approximately at the level of 2019 - 158 kg per capita per year, decreases or still grows. However, in all three scenarios, Russia achieves self-sufficiency in milk in terms of final consumption until 2025. In other words, for the further development of the dairy industry, it is still necessary to develop the export of dairy products, and seriously work on this right now,’ says Ekaterina Zakharova, a leading Analyst at the Dairy Intelligence Agency.
1. Cautiously optimistic scenario
Milk production continues to grow at 5% per year
Consumption is at 158 kg per capita per year
Self-sufficiency will be achieved in 2023
Milk production continues to grow at 5% per year
Consumption is growing by 1% per year
Self-sufficiency will be achieved in 2024
3. Pessimistic scenario
Milk production continues to grow at 5% per year
Consumption is decreasing by 1% per year
Self-sufficiency will be achieved in 2022
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