Raw milk significantly outstrips inflation - Alexander Polyak
‘The fact is that we do not depend on imports as much as it seems. If only fr om Belarus, and not fr om far abroad. Belarus exports only skimmed milk powder and 90% of their butter goes to Russia. In addition, under the old contracts, we import butter from South America. It is quite cheap: 350-360 rubles at the entrance,’ the expert said.
Alexander Polyak believes that in Russia the final demand for dairy products is not growing. According to the expert, it even begins to decline. At the same time, the production of raw milk increased by 5.6% last year.
According to a member of the Council of the Dairy Union of Russia, today there is a balance in the market, and there are no price growth factors. Retail chains lim it margins, preventing further price increases. According to the expert, the growth of the DIA price index is also dependent on imports, and in the next 2-3 months this will not affect the domestic market in any way.
‘At the end of last year, inflation in the Russian Federation reached almost 5%. In addition, milk has already increased in price by more than 10%. That is, raw milk outstrips inflation significantly. Yes, feed prices have risen, but it seems that additional duties have been imposed on soybeans – a tax on exports. Therefore, I do not see any opportunities for an increase in the price of raw milk,’ said Alexander Polyak.
He also reminded that, according to the Sberbank index, the average salaries of Russian citizens in November 2020 were 8% lower than the same figures for November 2019. Therefore, according to the expert, there are no drivers of price growth.
Alexander Polyak noted that the index, which reflects the growth of import prices, shows that imported goods will not be imported to Russia, since our country has enough of its own production reserves. The expert added that last year there was more skimmed milk powder in Russia than in 2019, at the same time more cheese and raw milk were produced. According to a member of the Council of the Dairy Union of Russia, raw milk went to the production of cheeses and milk powder, which will be consumed now.
‘Moreover, I think that in a few months the price of raw milk will start to fall. It will happen in March, maybe earlier. I know that some regions wh ere there is an overabundance of milk are already starting to lower the price by 50 kopecks, because there is no final demand,’ concluded Alexander Polyak.