Milk production in the world according to preliminary estimates increased by 2.3 in 2020%
The growth dynamics are higher than the record low figures of 2019, due to demand from the largest importing countries, good weather conditions and well-thought-out government policies to support demand in some countries in 2020. According to IFCN analysts, the pandemic has not affected the global dairy market very much.
The growth in demand for milk was about 2.2% in 2020 (more precisely, in the range from + 1.6 to +2.8%). If economic recovery and GDP growth begin in 2021, this will give a positive boost to consumption, but so far, everything is very uncertain.
The average price of milk on the world market according to IFCN calculations in 2020 was 36.5 dollars/100 kg (26.9 rubles per kg at the current exchange rate of $), IFCN forecast for this year was 35-38 dollars per 100 kg. And now milk prices are rising (as prices for exchange-traded dairy products are rising, the latest auction of GDT confirms this), in January 2021, the price of milk on the world market was estimated by IFCN at $ 40.2 per 100 kg (29.64 rubles/kg, for comparison, INDEX DIA today is 29.12 rubles per kg).
In 2020, prices for skimmed milk powder and imports of skimmed milk powder went up (price growth +5.8% compared to 2019 and import growth +0.3% compared to 2019). The price of butter decreased by -14.4% (partly because in previous years the price was very high) and the import of butter by -3% compared to 2019.
In 2020, there were also very high prices for feed (+40% compared to 2019). They continue to grow: in January 2021, the average price for feed, according to IFCN estimates, was $ 30.3 per 100 kg (22.34 rubles per kg).
According to analysts of the Dairy Intelligence Agency (DIA), IFCN highlights positive factors in terms of price dynamics in the milk market in 2020: growth in retail sales, policy on dairy stocks, growth in dairy imports (growth in demand from importing countries). Negative factors: a drop in the catering segment, economic problems - a decline in household incomes, a decline in milk supplies due to low prices, and more or less neutral ones like the growth of the pig population in China (this stimulated the demand for whey).
Overall, 2020 was a good year, and 2021 will depend on the pace of recovery of the world's economies from the recession, on demand from importers and the dynamics of production growth (which may be lower due to expensive feed).