In the first five months exports of dairy products increased by 26%
According to the results of January—May 2020, exports of dairy products from the Russian Federation increased by 26%, to 335 thousand tons. In monetary terms, deliveries increased by 16% to $144.6 million. The National Union of milk producers (Soyuzmoloko) provided this data to “Kommersant”. In physical terms, export volumes are at a historic maximum and more than a third higher than the levels before the sanctions 2014, it said.
The most significant dynamics were shown by whey and skimmed milk powder, whose exports increased five and three times year-on-year, respectively. Supplies of butter from Russia increased by 35%, cheese products — by 30%, ice cream — by 24%, drinking milk and cream - by 22%, cheeses - by 14%. About 91% of deliveries were to CIS countries, and products were also exported to Mongolia, Abkhazia, Georgia, the United States and China.
In "Soyuzmoloko" the increase in exports is explained by the weakening of the ruble by 15% at the beginning of the year, which made Russian products more competitive. In addition, the volume of deliveries was positively affected by the diversification of exports, including at the expense of whey and milk powder, as well as the growth of shipments to the Chinese market. In January—May 2020, deliveries of dairy products from Russia to China increased by 13%, to 3.6 thousand tons, and in monetary terms — by 32%, to $3.5 million, specified in “Soyuzmoloko”. At the same time, they added, if earlier Russian companies exported mainly ice cream to China, but now they are delivering the first batches of whole-milk products.
Russian producers of dairy products are increasing exports against the background of weakening demand in the country. So, according to “Soyuzmoloko”, in the first quarter, sales of the category decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, including due to falling demand in cafes, restaurants and hotels. According to the interlocutor of “Kommersant" in a large manufacturer, the most noticeable decrease is in sales of products with high profitability - yoghurts and fruit curds. At the same time, demand switched to traditional products — drinking milk, sour cream and kefir, he adds. The main reason is a decrease in purchasing power. According to Rosstat, the real income of Russians in the second quarter fell by 8% in annual terms.
Andrey Dalnov, Head of the Center for industry expertise of the Rosselkhozbank, points out that the increase in dairy exports was also influenced by the expansion of the raw material base: in five months, raw milk production increased by 7%, to 7.45 million tons. An additional factor was the relatively high price level for skimmed milk powder in the world. According to his forecasts, export growth will continue if these trends continue. Deputy Director of the group of companies "Damate" (brand “Molkom”) Andrey Grigorashchenko expects that the expansion of export channels and the gradual increase in supply volumes in the future will help to maintain a balance in the market and will become a certain guarantee for the manufacturer in the conditions of sharp price fluctuations.
Daria Snitko, Head of the economic forecasting center at Gazprombank, says that the main risk for Russian dairy exports today is a decline in global trade turnover against the background of the crisis due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Although this trend is not particularly evident in food, it has taken on real shape in other industries, such as the energy market, she says. “Soyuzmoloko” admits some logistical difficulties in the case of new restrictive measures in connection with the pandemic, but they do not see any serious risks for reducing the growth rate of dairy exports from the Russian Federation.
