In 2021, Rosselkhozbank expects a record of ice cream consumption in the country for the last 10 years
The increase in consumption will be a continuation of the trend of a gradual increase in demand in the previous 10 years. At the same time, taking into account the cold climate of Russia and the seasonality of ice cream consumption in the country, the point of growth for Russian producers, according to experts of Rosselkhozbank, may be a further increase in export volumes.
In 2020, 451 thousand tons of ice cream were produced in Russia (+8%, here and further - year-on-year). According to the results of the current year, experts of Rosselkhozbank expect a further increase of 3% to 463 thousand tons.
The bulk of the ice cream produced in the country is used to meet domestic demand. So, last year, despite the pandemic restrictions, Russians ate 444 thousand tons of ice cream (+9%), or 3 kg per capita.
‘Although a significant share of sales of ice cream is accounted for by street kiosks, parks, cafes, and in the conditions of self-isolation, sales in the HoReCa channel decreased, the total volume of consumption last year showed an increase. This was due to the consumer's habits that changed during the period of self-isolation. So, in 2020, sales of multiportion formats designed for several people increased. In addition, people began to be eat ice cream more at home, ordering delivery via the Internet,’ said Head of the CIE Andrey Dalnov.
The growth of ice cream consumption in Russia is also promoted by the desire of producers to adapt to the changing preferences of the consumer and offer him new taste solutions.
‘During the pandemic, the trend of growing popularity of healthy food has strengthened. The ice cream market has responded to this trend with the introduction of low-calorie, low-sugar, high-protein products, as well as the introduction of vegan ice cream. Although for the Russian consumer who perceives ice cream as a treat, this direction still remains a niche, taking into account the international experience, we expect an increase in demand for "healthy ice cream" in the next couple of years,’ added the Head of the CIE.
The volume of ice cream imports to Russia in 2021 is expected to decrease by 20% - to 15 thousand tons against 19 thousand tons a year earlier. ‘The dynamics of consumption of imported ice cream is also affected by fluctuations in the exchange rate and partly by the introduction of ice cream labeling, which becomes mandatory since the middle of this year. At the same time, we believe that this opens up additional opportunities for domestic producers to replenish the volumes of imported products that may fall out of consumption due to the adaptation of foreign companies to new economic and regulatory conditions,’ said Dalnov.
Sales of ice cream in Russia mainly depend on the season and weather conditions. Therefore, for manufacturers, in addition to the development of online sales, one of the ways to smooth out the impact of such an unpredictable factor as the weather is to enter international markets.
The export of Russian ice cream continues to gain momentum, having increased more than 8 times over the past 10 years – from 3 thousand tons in 2010 to 26 thousand tons in 2020. By the end of this year, the bank's experts expect the indicator to grow by another 15% - to a record 30 thousand tons.
‘We believe that over the next few years, the volume of ice cream exports will grow by an average of 5-10% per year. This will be facilitated both by measures of comprehensive support for domestic dairy producers, and by the significant interest of foreign partners in the Russian delicacy. Domestic producers use the potential of Soviet recipes, which supports the demand for Russian ice cream from the CIS countries at a stable level,’ explain the experts from the Center for Industry Expertise of Rosselkhozbank.
The main buyer of Russian ice cream on the international market is Kazakhstan, which in 2020 increased the volume of imports by 27% - to 11.2 thousand tons, and in monetary terms by 2% - to 20 million dollars. At the end of last year, the second place in the list of importers of Russian ice cream was taken by the United States, which for the year increased supplies by more than 3 times in physical and monetary terms – up to 3.8 thousand tons or 9.2 million dollars. At the same time, Mongolia, which reduced the import of ice cream from Russia by 7% to 2 thousand tons ($4.8 million), went down to third place.
The further realization of Russia's export potential in the ice cream market is associated with China. Currently, this country is the second largest market in the world for ice cream after the EU. In total, in 2019, China imported 25 thousand tons of ice cream from all countries for $ 103 million. Of these, Russian products accounted for 4%. In 2020, the share of Russian ice cream in China's imports increased to 5% (1 thousand tons), and in monetary terms, deliveries increased by 14% year-on-year (to $ 4.2 million). According to the results of last year, China ranks seventh among the largest importers of Russian ice cream in physical terms and fifth in monetary terms.
Алексей Сафиуллин, генеральный директор удмуртской ООО «СТСХ»
Производителям нужно поднимать цены, но в цепочке «Производитель-Переработчик-Розничная сеть» все цены диктуют сети и переработчики, что приводит к миграции производителей от одних переработчиков к другим. Производителям остается надеяться только на помощь государства.
Сергей Резуненко, генеральный директор компании Кизельманн ЮГ
Мы часто говорим: не надо кооперироваться, создайте продукт, который будет нужен людям на рынке, а применение мембранных технологий позволит держать высокую цену на сырье и позволит заниматься переработкой и получать дополнительную прибыль.
Олег Мироненко, исполнительный директор Национального органического союза РФ
Во-первых, нас с вами не ждут на мировом рынке органической продукции, во-вторых, все, что мы можем сегодня поставить на внешние рынки – это сырье на 20-40 млрд €. О производстве на экспорт продукции глубокой переработки практически речи не идет.
Сергей Баранов, генеральный директор Кизельманн Рус
На сегодня тенденция такова, что региональные производители дали жесткий бой транснациональным компаниям, и они потерпели поражение. Я говорю о том самом молоке «от знакомой коровы», которое занимает полки и хорошо продается, завоевывая сердца и кошельки покупателей.
Андрей Григоращенко, заместитель гендиректора ГК Дамате
Новости о господдержке не прибавляют оптимизма. Чтобы ферма окупалась за 8 лет, средняя цена на молоко должна быть 42 рубля. Это говорит о том, что ферма в среднем будет окупаться за 15 лет. Без долгосрочной политики по мерам господдержки, я не вижу больших перспектив сохранения позитивного тренда, который на сегодняшний день сформирован.