Denis Fedoseyev: Agrocomplex named after Tkachev records a decrease in the consumption of drinking milk and kefir
‘As producers, we can note that now consumption of drinking milk and kefir is generally reduced. At the same time, yoghurts, cottage cheese with additives and other complex products are growing,’ Denis Fedoseyev said.
According to the expert, ‘the decline in real incomes of the population and difficulties in restoring the HoReCa segment due to the pandemic have an obvious negative impact.’ The market share of vegetable milk is also growing.
Denis Fedoseyev stressed that despite the fact that the dairy industry is not recognized as affected by the coronavirus, the dynamics of consumption in recent years confirms the thesis of a direct dependence of demand for dairy products on purchasing power.
‘So, reducing the consumption of dairy products in 2014 by 2.4% occurred against the backdrop of falling real disposable income by 1.2%. In 2015, the same trend was observed: the financial ability of the Russians fell by 2.4% and consumption - by 2.5%. In addition, for example, last year the recovery of income by 1% led to the fact that people started consume more dairy products — by 3% compared to 2018. The forecast of the Ministry of economic development allows a drop in real disposable income by the end of 2020 by 3.8%, so we can expect a reduction in the domestic market of dairy products in at least the same ratio,’ said the representative of Agrocomplex, naming a number of factors that will affect the consumption of the category.
The expert expressed the opinion that the real income of the population will be restored for a long time. Moreover, part of the population has almost completely exhausted their savings and will not be able to increase demand, especially for more expensive items, and demand in HoReCa will recover very slowly, taking into account the fact that most of the small restaurants and cafes have closed forever, and new ones will not appear so actively.
‘There is a trend of promoting a negative attitude to milk and replacing it with vegetable analogues. The market in 2020 will be significantly affected by macroeconomics and regulatory measures. An important role this year will be played by the devaluation of the ruble, which significantly increases the cost of production. The cost of dairy products is increasing: the exchange rate is changing, gas tariffs may increase, service costs will increase, and the introduction of labeling will have a strong impact on the cost. This is another factor that introduces uncertainty,’ Denis Fedoseyev said.
Earlier, we wrote about trends in dairy consumption in the "Hot topic" section. Read the full comments of directors of companies at the link.
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