Artem Belov: the results of the dairy industry in 2020 are better than we expected
The expert noted that, in general, despite the pandemic, the situation developed according to a more favorable scenario than could have been expected at the beginning of the year. A similar picture was observed not only in Russia, but also in the world.
Demand for the dairy category did not fall, but even increased slightly in relation to several categories. The expert believes that this is due to the fact that the state allocated the so-called "helicopter" money in the amount of about 400 million rubles, which is very significant, especially since it was sent to socially vulnerable segments of the population and was spent on food. This measure helped to support the demand in the country not only for dairy products, but also for food products.
- The second most important story related to demand is that Russians, who traditionally go abroad in the summer, did not go anywhere this year and spent money inside the country. Two weeks a year is about 4% of the annual consumption. And this is a factor that also played a very serious positive role and contributed to maintaining demand, - said Artem Belov.
He also added that the self-isolation of citizens and some changes in consumption habits also affected the increase in demand for dairy products. According to him, "the practice of cooking at home" has led to an increase in demand for a number of more capacious products: butter, sour cream, cheeses.
- We see that milk consumption in general has also increased. Therefore, the story of an increase in demand is the first positive thing that can be stated at the end of this year, the expert said.
At the same time, he noted that it is necessary to understand that there is a significant risk in what will happen in 2021. According to Artem Belov, the factors that were successful this year will not be positive next year. This can also lead to serious risks in consumption.
CEO of Soyuzmoloko noted that another significant factor this year is exports, which are associated with almost 25% devaluation of the ruble.
- At the end of 2019, the volume of exports amounted to just over $300 million. This year, according to our forecasts, it will grow by about 25% in physical terms and about 20% in monetary terms, the expert said.
He noted that the third important factor this year is imports. According to forecasts, in 2020, the volume of imports of dairy products will decrease by about 200 thousand tons, which will be approximately 2-3%. This is largely due to the exchange rate difference.
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