The Ministry of agriculture does not foresee increasing of milk production in Russia up to 2030

As follows from the document posted on the Agency's website, from 2017 to 2020 the average annual decline will make 0.2%, from 2020 to 2030 - 0.3%. These indicators are the same in two scenarios of scientific and technological development of the industry: "local growth" and "global breakthrough".

According to the document, one of the reasons for this is the "slow decline of production in cattle breeding". "The share of dairy industry in agriculture will decrease from 12.6% in 2016 to 8.8-9.6% in 2030 as a result of gradual displacement of natural milk with various substitutes", - stated in the forecast.

In other industries of livestock breeding the growth is projected. Thus, the production of beef for the period from 2017 to 2020 will increase in the first scenario by 0.4% per year on average, in the second one – by 0.5%, the production of poultry meat - by 4.1% and by 5.6%, respectively, of pork - by 2.4% and by 3.4%. In 2020-2025 the average annual growth in beef production according to the scenario "local growth" will accelerate to 0.5%, to the scenario "global breakthrough" up to 0.6%, in 2025-2030 years up to 0.6% and 0.9%, respectively.

Poultry industry in 2020-2025 will increase production in the first scenario by 4.7%, in the second - by 5.1% on average per year, in 2025-2030 – by 5.3% and 6.3%, respectively. Pork production in 2020-2025 in the first scenario will grow by 3.6%, in the second - by 4.1%, in 2025-2030 – by 4.2% and 5.2%, respectively.

According to the forecast of the authors of the document, the food industry will "demonstrate a sustainable increase in production volume of main products during the forecast period." In particular, the production of cheese by 2020 according to the scenario "local growth" will grow by 2.6% per year, in 2020-2025 – by 3.9%, in 2025-2030 – by 4.2% per year. According to the scenario "global breakthrough" the growth will be from 3.8% to 4.8% per year.

Forecast has been developed in cooperation with the Higher school of Economics. The document was approved at the meeting of the government Commission on agriculture and sustainable rural development on December 13, 2016.

Read full article in Russian on DairyNews.ru